Conditional one-child policy for India

The phrase "Hum do hamara ek" seems to be getting more preference over "Hum do hamare do" for India in the coming future- at least to the people concerned for per- captia GDP. But the major threat that arises with this idea is the real consequences that China is facing today of its one child policy started in 1979. Though China has brought itself into severe demographic problem of aging population and population dis-balance, the ground reality is that it has been able to ultimately control its population by at least 400 million in these years that has, directly or indirectly, helped china to sustain its growth in all spheres by controlling the consumption of resources.
Now learning the negative effects of the policy from China, India can go for a conditional One-Child policy in which it would be able to control the child birth by the people who are already struggling to get their both ends meet. Giving birth to another child further increases the per person expenditure in such families that creates a wide gap in contribution Vs consumption of this segment of population and this is a major factor restricting the growth of the country as a whole. In areas like UP and Bihar where the birth rate is very high as compared to other more educated(therefore skilled) states like Kerala and Tamilnadu, this policy can be implemented as an incentive to people to move to higher income levels to have one more child. But this policy alone would not work. Govt. will have to simultaneously lay emphasis on the development of these people through better education policies which attracts them to educate their child making him a more skilled person for future. Moreover, to avoid the little emperor problem, further incentive can be continued to be given on having a female child. This would also control the male-female ratio in the country.
One of the major hindrance to the implementation to this policy is going to be the misconception of “more children, more earning hands” in especially poor population that look forward to having as many children as possible with a hope that they would start earning at one point of time and fail to understand the earning-consumption gap. Moreover this also leads to problems like child labor and escape from education for children to make them earning as soon as possible. A special education drive for the existing adults in poor population is needed to make them understand the true reality and consequences of this misconception.
For the better off families in urban areas, the multiple child policy can successfully run, which is by default limited to 2 child policy with the concept of nuclear families. Moreover, with the better grooming of these children, they would actually be an asset to country as their contribution as an individual would be higher than their resource consumption.
In nut shell, the overall impact of this policy would get down to (average) 1.5 child policy reducing to half straightaway, the negative impacts of the policy. And by limiting the policy to 15-20 years (instead of 30 yrs like China) would further control the population dis-balance.

Gaurav

1 comment:

  1. Good article!! I think as the center of power is shifting towards Asia Pacific, India would really need to work on strategy implementation gap to sustain its growth parallel to china.

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